Chargers 2026 Roster Prediction - Actual vs Expected

2026-08-30 NFL Chargers

I had to slip an inside actuarial joke in the title. The upshot: how did I do with my predictions?

Right and Wrong (a nod to Colin Cowherd)

What I got right: I thought the team would manipulate the roster to maximize the number of offensive linemen by putting Branson Taylor on the Reserve/Injured; Designated for Return.

What I got wrong: I thought that meant 9 offensive linemen + Branson Taylor. I did not expect 2 more offensive linemen (total of 11 + Branson Taylor).

What I got right: I thought the Chargers would maximize both Reserve/Injured; Designated for Return slots.

What I got wrong: The Chargers used the second slot on Scott Matlock instead of Jaret Patterson. I did not consider that Matlock was injured when I made my prediction; I expected Matlock to make the practice squad, but since he is injured I think this move was the only way for the Chargers to keep his rights.

What I got right: I thought the team would make trades to extract value from having too many talented players to protect.

What I got wrong: The Chargers traded Avery Smith and TeRah Edwards instead of Junior Colson and Trevor Penning. Getting 6th round picks in 2027 and 2028 for both players was a great haul.

What I got right: JK Scott had a terrible preseason.

What I got wrong: It was so terrible they decided to go without a punter (for now).

What I got right and wrong: Trey Lance was not good and the Chargers kept him anyway (for now).

Recap

I had TBD vs Trey Lance as the second QB.
I had Nikko Reed vs Rodney Shelley.
I had Penning traded instead of Smith.
I had JK Scott over Alex Harkey.
I had Branson Taylor and Isaiah World on the correct Reserve lists.
I had Jaret Patterson instead of Scott Matlock as the second Reserve/Injured; Designated for Return player.
I was correct that Kyle Kennard would not be on the roster in 2026, though he was waived/injured instead of being put on the Reserve list.
I was also correct about Dalevon Campbell not making the roster. If his injury is as severe as it looked, I feel for him not making the Reserve list and instead being waived/injured.

Overall, I correctly predicted:

49 out of the final 53 players on the roster
2 of the Reserve list placements
that 2 trades would happen
that both Reserve/Injured; Designated for Return slots would be used

Final Thoughts

The Chargers under Harbaugh have yet to cut a player drafted in the 1st through 6th rounds in the year they were drafted, something I will keep in mind next year.
If a Chargers player is on the bubble, that player NEEDS TO PERFORM in the preseason to make the roster (unless he is Trey Lance). Players like Colson and Reed were fine but did not stand out, costing them potential spots. As for JK Scott, let's hope it's "message received" if the team brings him back.
My best call: predicting that Branson Taylor would be put on the Reserve/Injured; Designated for Return list to make room for Logan Taylor. Most other predictions I saw had Logan Taylor not making the final roster.
I am ok missing on Shelley vs Reed and Harkey vs Scott. I also was close on the trade front, just missing Smith vs Penning.
I admit my Trey Lance prediction was a reach (so perhaps I should call this 49+ out of 53). I will feel vindicated if they replace Lance with a more suitable backup in the next week, along with getting DJ Uiagalelei on the practice squad.