QB Tiers and the Franchise QB Myth
When you hear sports pundits discuss NFL quarterbacks, inevitably they will assess whether that player is a "Franchise Quarterback". If a team has a Franchise Quarterback, then the team is set at QB and ready to challenge for a Super Bowl (assuming other pieces are reasonably in place). Franchise Quarterbacks should be paid, because otherwise you might lose the player and wander the wilderness until you are blessed again to have another Franchise Quarterback. In short, the Franchise Quarterback is the Holy Grail / The One Ring; that precious thing that must be captured and preserved at all costs.
The Franchise QB Myth
The reality is a bit different. The real key is a much higher standard than the Franchise Quarterback - it's the pairing of a Hall of Fame (HOF) head coach with a Greatest Of All Time (GOAT) quarterback candidate. Bill Walsh with Joe Montana, Bill Belichick with Tom Brady, Andy Reid with Patrick Mahomes. These situations are the true Holy Grail and truly rare. Aaron Rodgers never had a HOF head coach and only won 1 Super Bowl. Drew Brees had Sean Payton, but the Saints defense / special teams was too poor to yield more than 1 Super Bowl. Other GOAT candidates, such as John Elway and Peyton Manning, had mixed Super Bowl success with multiple head coaches.
Since the year 2001, when Tom Brady played in his first Super Bowl, the following quarterbacks have played in a Super Bowl:
| Quarterback | Appearances | Record (W-L) |
|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 10 | 7-3 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 5 | 3-2 |
| Peyton Manning | 4 | 2-2 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 3 | 2-1 |
| Eli Manning | 2 | 2-0 |
| Russell Wilson | 2 | 1-1 |
| Jalen Hurts | 2 | 1-1 |
| Kurt Warner | 2 | 0-2 |
| Brad Johnson | 1 | 1-0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | 1-0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | 1-0 |
| Joe Flacco | 1 | 1-0 |
| Nick Foles | 1 | 1-0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 1-0 |
| Sam Darnold | 1 | 1-0 |
| Rich Gannon | 1 | 0-1 |
| Jake Delhomme | 1 | 0-1 |
| Donovan McNabb | 1 | 0-1 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1 | 0-1 |
| Rex Grossman | 1 | 0-1 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 1 | 0-1 |
| Cam Newton | 1 | 0-1 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | 0-1 |
| Jared Goff | 1 | 0-1 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 1 | 0-1 |
| Joe Burrow | 1 | 0-1 |
| Brock Purdy | 1 | 0-1 |
| Drake Maye | 1 | 0-1 |
The top 3 in this list are all part of the GOAT discussion. Big Ben, a future HOF quarterback, had the benefit of great teams and head coaches (at least early in his career). Kurt Warner played in a third Super Bowl not listed above; leading the traditionally woebegone Rams and Cardinals to three Super Bowls justifiably earned him a gold jacket.
Otherwise, having a HOF quarterback is not a requirement for making or winning a Super Bowl. The Eagles victory with Nick Foles over the Patriots / Belichick / Brady is the epitome of team over quarterback.
What Really Matters?
The most important criteria to get to the Super Bowl is having a competent+ (or better) starting quarterback. Competent+ means the quarterback is solid most of the time, makes a few key plays a game, and largely avoids soul-crushing plays. Jameis Winston sadly fails the third criteria.
A player does not need to be competent+ for their entire career, just in the seasons where the team is contending. Drew Brees was pulled at halftime of a game I attended in Chicago in 2003. That Chargers team was solid, but Brees was so far below the competent+ threshold that season the Chargers wound up with the first pick in the 2004 NFL Draft. Brees launched his GOAT candidacy in 2004 and the Chargers made the playoffs. The lone quarterback to power the Chargers to a Super Bowl (in 1994) was Stan Humphries, the ultimate competent+ quarterback.
Your team should not be searching for the next Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid combo; that's like hitting the 10-year lottery. Instead, the focus should be on pairing a competent+ (or better) quarterback with a great head coach and team. Sean Payton understood this concept when he drafted Bo Nix. He gets competent+ quarterback play at a rookie salary which (1) lets the Broncos spend money on the rest of the roster, and (2) thus makes it much easier to have a Super Bowl caliber team. After Nix plays out his fifth-year option, Payton can move on to the next quarterback if Nix does not accept a competent+ salary.
The Achilles heel - if you overpay your non-GOAT quarterback, you cannot (usually) field a good enough team. Call this the Daniel Jones fallacy: a borderline competent+ quarterback who keeps getting paid like a "Franchise Quarterback". He is the poster boy for why the Franchise Quarterback myth is so damaging.
QB Tiers
Given the above, I have my own tiers for quarterbacks. They are based on actual 2025 and projected 2026 play. I am basing these loosely on the QB Tiers published annually by The Athletic's Mike Sando.
Tier - Team can win 11 games without an offensive line for half a season
Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert
Unless you watch the Chargers regularly, you cannot fathom just how bad things got for the offensive line in 2025. There were games the Chargers played with their 5th and 6th choice offensive tackles, while Bradley Bozeman was the lowest rated center in the league and Mekhi Becton had a poor injury riddled season. Herbert makes this list because he proved he could do it; the other 2 for obvious reasons.
Tier - Team is extremely happy with their quarterback
Matthew Stafford, Joe Burrow, Dak Prescott, Jordan Love
Tier - Young quarterbacks who fit the above tier
Drake Maye, Caleb Williams
Tier - In Limbo
These quarterbacks have been great but injured recently, so could reasonably be slotted in almost any tier.
Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels
Tier - The Jared Goff standard (competent+)
Jared Goff, Brock Purdy, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Trevor Lawrence, Jalen Hurts, Bo Nix, Kyler Murray
Tier - Might be competent+?
Aaron Rodgers, CJ Stroud, Daniel Jones, Bryce Young, Cam Ward, Tyler Shough, Malik Willis
Tier - Probably not competent+
Jaxson Dart, Tua Tagovailoa / Michael Penix Jr, Kirk Cousins, Geno Smith, Deshaun Watson / Shedeur Sanders, Jacoby Brissett
The Lamar Jackson Conundrum
I don't really know what to do with Lamar Jackson (hence the "limbo" tier). Statistically, he's been mostly brilliant in his career and has won 2 MVP awards. The eye test matches the statistics. By all accounts he should be in the 11-win tier. To be clear, as a Rivers / Herbert apologist, I do not countenance quarterback wins as a real concept. And yet: with a great coach and great roster, Jackson has played in just 1 conference championship game; it's hard not to wonder why have the Ravens with Jackson haven't had more success. Even having a top-tier Franchise Quarterback like Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen does not guarantee you a Super Bowl appearance.
QB Tier takeaway
4 of the 8 quarterbacks in the Jared Goff tier have played in a Super Bowl, going 2-3. Bo Nix was an injury away from making that 5 of 8 and 2-4. As long as you don't overpay the player, having a Jared Goff tier quarterback is perfectly fine. The problem of course is these players get paid, which significantly reduces their chances of playing in another Super Bowl.
As a fan, stop caring if you have a Franchise Quarterback. Worry instead if your quarterback is competent+ and is on a reasonable salary. Worry about your team repeating the Daniel Jones fallacy.
Vikings fans: if the coaching and roster holds up, Kyler Murray is an excellent candidate to join the list of Super Bowl quarterbacks in the Jared Goff tier.